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Florida Atlantic OwlsCaden Veltkamp
#10 · QB · 14 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 12 of these 14 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 307.9 PASS YDS · our lineSave this DK Pick6 prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 296.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 5/100· model 23% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)53neutral
Projection vs line23argues against it
Consistency60supports it
Projection
365.5 PASS YDS(×1.14 context)
L5 342.8 · L10 311.2 · med 291.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 260.8 · ceil 355.8
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2014 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Season14 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 296.5Current | 50% | 7/14 | |
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 43% | 6/14 |
Situational splits
Over 296.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home57%4/7Low
Away43%3/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days54%7/13Low
Next matchup — vs FIU
Sep 19, 2026
195thof 214 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
FIU allows 115.3 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Caden Veltkamp has gone over 296.5 PASS YDS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 50% across the full season. FIU has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 195th-most PASS YDS of 214 teams (115.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 73.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.