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Jacksonville State GamecocksCaleb Coombs
#16 · WR · 5' 11" · 187 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Dec 6, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Jacksonville State
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 32.4 REC YDSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 34.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 58% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line58neutral
Consistency14argues against it
Projection
38.0 REC YDS(×1.10 context)
L5 34.8 · L10 32.4 · med 34.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 19.2 · ceil 45.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 34.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 |
Situational splits
Over 34.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away60%3/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days57%4/7Low
Last matchup — @ FIU
Nov 22, 2025
168thof 233 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
FIU allows 42.5 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 53 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 8 games, Caleb Coombs has gone over 34.5 REC YDS 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. FIU has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 168th-most REC YDS of 233 teams (42.5 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 16.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.