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James Madison DukesCamden Coleman Rushing Yards
Stats updated: Nov 5, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Camden Coleman has gone over 24.5 RUSH YDS in 3 of his last 8 decided games (38%), measured against our typical-game line.
- College
- James Madison
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line1.4×
Rushing Yards · season avg 14.5 RUSH YDS · DK Pick6 lineSave this DK Pick6 prop to your Playbook to track it
DK Pick6 payout options — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation. Payout-wt= season over rate × the rung’s multiplier — a per-leg comparison against the standard line’s 1×. Descriptive research, not betting advice.
Verdict
vs 24.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 4/100· model 28% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)56neutral
Projection vs line41neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
12.0 RUSH YDS(×1.00 context)
L5 13.4 · L10 14.5 · med 14.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 2.2 · ceil 25.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Scored against this payout variant's ~36% breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for its payout, not a coin flip. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 108 games
38%over
3 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%Last 208 games
38%over
3 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%Season8 games
38%over
3 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%Situational splits
Over 24.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away25%1/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days43%3/7Low
Next matchup — @ USM
Nov 6, 2026
28thof 234 in RUSH YDS allowed to quarterbacks
USM allows 38.6 RUSH YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 9 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 8 games, Camden Coleman has gone over 24.5 RUSH YDS 3 of 8 decided times (38%) — versus 38% across the full season. USM has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 28th-most RUSH YDS of 234 teams (38.6 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 17.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 12.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.1%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 49.9%
Best Over
FanDuel-112
-5.3% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-112
-5.5% EV
Model vs market (over)-22.0%
Our model puts the over at 28.0% vs the market's no-vig 50.1%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (12.5 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Over only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 38%.
More Camden Coleman research
Camden Coleman — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Coleman Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Coleman Completions→
Completions hit rates and trends.
Coleman Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
CFB Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.