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Purdue BoilermakersChauncey Magwood
#5 · WR · 6' 0" · 200 lb · 2 games
Stats updated: Sep 19, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Purdue
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line1.3×
Receiving Yards · season avg 52.0 REC YDS · DK Pick6 lineSave this DK Pick6 prop to your Playbook to track it
DK Pick6 payout options — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation. Payout-wt= season over rate × the rung’s multiplier — a per-leg comparison against the standard line’s 1×. Descriptive research, not betting advice.
Verdict
vs 49.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsWarm overFireFactor 26/100· model 45% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)85supports it
Projection vs line57neutral
Consistency20argues against it
Projection
46.8 REC YDS(×0.92 context)
L5 52.0 · L10 52.0 · med 52.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 37.0 · ceil 67.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Scored against this payout variant's ~38% breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for its payout, not a coin flip. Small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 52 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Last 102 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Last 202 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Season2 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Situational splits
Over 49.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%1/1Low
Away0%0/1Low
Days since last game
3+ days0%0/1Low
Next matchup — vs ND
Sep 26, 2026
189thof 228 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
ND allows 33.8 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 8 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 2 games, Chauncey Magwood has gone over 49.5 REC YDS 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. ND has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 189th-most REC YDS of 228 teams (33.8 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 25.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
1 book @ 40.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.9%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.1%
Best Over
Caesars-114
-6.3% EV
Best Under
Caesars-115
-6.3% EV
Model vs market (over)-4.5%
Our model puts the over at 45.4% vs the market's no-vig 49.9%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (40.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Over only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.