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Clemson TigersChris Johnson Jr.
#16 · RB · 6' 0" · 190 lb · 12 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 11 of these 12 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 19, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Clemson
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 44.3 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this DK Pick6 prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 36.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 46% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line46neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
44.8 RUSH YDS(×0.96 context)
L5 43.6 · L10 46.7 · med 37.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 19.0 · ceil 57.8
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2012 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Season12 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 36.5Current | 50% | 6/12 | |
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 50% | 6/12 |
Situational splits
Over 36.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home43%3/7Low
Away60%3/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days45%5/11Low
Next matchup — @ CAL
Sep 26, 2026
112thof 228 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
CAL allows 44.8 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 8 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Chris Johnson Jr. has gone over 36.5 RUSH YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. CAL has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 112th-most RUSH YDS of 228 teams (44.8 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 34.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.