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NC State WolfpackCJ Bailey Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)
Stats updated: Dec 19, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
CJ Bailey has gone over 22.5 FS in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- College
- NC State
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 20.7 FSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 22.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)No readFireFactor 6/100· model 38% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)60supports it
Projection vs line38argues against it
Consistency44neutral
Projection
18.9 FS(×0.93 context)
L5 20.1 · L10 19.5 · med 20.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 14.8 · ceil 26.6
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2013 games
54%over
7 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 29%–77%Season13 games
54%over
7 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 29%–77%Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)
FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62% | 8/13 | ||
| 62% | 8/13 | ||
| 62% | 8/13 | ||
| 22.5Current | 54% | 7/13 | |
| 31% | 4/13 | ||
| 23% | 3/13 | ||
| 23% | 3/13 |
Situational splits
Over 22.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%6/8Low
Away20%1/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%6/12Low
Last matchup — vs MEM
Dec 19, 2025
125thof 234 in FS allowed to quarterbacks
MEM allows 17.6 FS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 13 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, CJ Bailey has gone over 22.5 FS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 54% across the full season. MEM has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 125th-most FS of 234 teams (17.6 per game). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 7.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 54%.
More CJ Bailey research
CJ Bailey — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Bailey Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Bailey Completions→
Completions hit rates and trends.
Bailey Rushing Yards→
Rushing Yards hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
CFB Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.