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Delaware Blue HensConnor Witthoft
#41 · WR · 6 games
Stats updated: Nov 8, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 11.0 REC YDSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 10.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 39% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line39argues against it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
12.9 REC YDS(×1.07 context)
L5 10.0 · L10 11.0 · med 11.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 4.0 · ceil 16.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 106 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Last 206 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Season6 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 4/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 10.5Current | 50% | 3/6 | |
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 |
Situational splits
Over 10.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days40%2/5Low
Last matchup — vs LT
Nov 8, 2025
130thof 233 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
LT allows 46.3 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 41 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 6 games, Connor Witthoft has gone over 10.5 REC YDS 3 of 6 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. LT has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 130th-most REC YDS of 233 teams (46.3 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 7.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.