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Georgia Tech Yellow JacketsDalen Penson
#7 · WR · 5' 11" · 182 lb · 3 games
Stats updated: Sep 19, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Georgia Tech
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 63.0 REC YDS · our lineSave this DK Pick6 prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 58.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsCool underFireFactor 28/100· model 20% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)99supports it
Projection vs line20argues against it
Consistency81supports it
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
66.2 REC YDS(×1.06 context)
L5 63.0 · L10 63.0 · med 58.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 58.0 · ceil 67.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 53 games
33%over
1 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%Last 103 games
33%over
1 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%Last 203 games
33%over
1 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%Season3 games
33%over
1 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 3/3 | ||
| 100% | 3/3 | ||
| 100% | 3/3 | ||
| 58.5Current | 33% | 1/3 | |
| 33% | 1/3 | ||
| 33% | 1/3 | ||
| 33% | 1/3 |
Situational splits
Over 58.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days0%0/2Low
Next matchup — @ STAN
Sep 27, 2026
46thof 228 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
STAN allows 57.2 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 11 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 3 games, Dalen Penson has gone over 58.5 REC YDS 1 of 3 decided times (33%) — versus 33% across the full season. STAN has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 46th-most REC YDS of 228 teams (57.2 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 7.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 39.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.8%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.2%
Best Over
FanDuel-112
-5.6% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-112
-5.1% EV
Model vs market (over)+30.0%
Our model puts the over at 79.9% vs the market's no-vig 49.8%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (39.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.