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UTSA RoadrunnersDan Dishman
#80 · TE · 6' 6" · 245 lb · 6 games
Stats updated: Oct 30, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- UTSA
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 16.7 REC YDSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 11.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 71% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line71supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
21.5 REC YDS(×1.08 context)
L5 18.4 · L10 16.7 · med 11.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 8.0 · ceil 17.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 106 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Last 206 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Season6 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 4/6 | ||
| 67% | 4/6 | ||
| 67% | 4/6 | ||
| 11.5Current | 50% | 3/6 | |
| 33% | 2/6 | ||
| 33% | 2/6 | ||
| 33% | 2/6 |
Situational splits
Over 11.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days60%3/5Low
Last matchup — vs TULN
Oct 30, 2025
111thof 223 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
TULN allows 19.6 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 16 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 6 games, Dan Dishman has gone over 11.5 REC YDS 3 of 6 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. TULN has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 111th-most REC YDS of 223 teams (19.6 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 13.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.