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Louisiana Tech BulldogsDavid Pierro
#15 · WR · 5' 10" · 185 lb · 5 games
Stats updated: Nov 16, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Louisiana Tech
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 17.8 REC YDSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 7.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 44% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line44neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
14.2 REC YDS
L5 17.8 · L10 17.8 · med 7.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 5.8 · ceil 20.8
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 105 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 205 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Season5 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80% | 4/5 | ||
| 80% | 4/5 | ||
| 80% | 4/5 | ||
| 7.5Current | 40% | 2/5 | |
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 20% | 1/5 |
Situational splits
Over 7.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days25%1/4Low
Last matchup — @ WSU
Nov 16, 2025
215thof 233 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
WSU allows 33.2 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 34 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 5 games, David Pierro has gone over 7.5 REC YDS 2 of 5 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. WSU has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 215th-most REC YDS of 233 teams (33.2 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 23.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.