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Kennesaw State OwlsDexter Williams II
#5 · QB · 6' 1" · 218 lb · 5 games
Stats updated: Nov 22, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Kennesaw State
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 141.8 PASS YDSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 114.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 44% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line44neutral
Consistency7argues against it
Projection
137.9 PASS YDS
L5 141.8 · L10 141.8 · med 114.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 84.0 · ceil 177.2
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 105 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 205 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Season5 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 114.5Current | 40% | 2/5 | |
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 40% | 2/5 |
Situational splits
Over 114.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days25%1/4Low
Last matchup — @ JVST
Nov 16, 2025
90thof 234 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
JVST allows 215.1 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 15 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 5 games, Dexter Williams II has gone over 114.5 PASS YDS 2 of 5 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. JVST has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 90th-most PASS YDS of 234 teams (215.1 per game). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 78.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.