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Florida GatorsDJ Lagway
#2 · QB · 6' 3" · 247 lb · 11 games
Stats updated: Nov 29, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Florida
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 195.3 PASS YDSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 217.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 35% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it
Projection vs line35argues against it
Consistency33argues against it
Projection
170.0 PASS YDS(×0.91 context)
L5 183.0 · L10 202.8 · med 220.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 120.0 · ceil 280.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2011 games
55%over
6 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%Season11 games
55%over
6 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55% | 6/11 | ||
| 55% | 6/11 | ||
| 55% | 6/11 | ||
| 217.5Current | 55% | 6/11 | |
| 45% | 5/11 | ||
| 45% | 5/11 | ||
| 45% | 5/11 |
Situational splits
Over 217.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%3/6Low
Away60%3/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days60%6/10Low
Last matchup — vs FSU
Nov 29, 2025
191stof 234 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
FSU allows 166.4 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 13 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, DJ Lagway has gone over 217.5 PASS YDS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 55% across the full season. FSU has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 191st-most PASS YDS of 234 teams (166.4 per game). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 78.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 55%.