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Maryland TerrapinsDorian Fleming
#9 · TE · 6' 3" · 245 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Nov 30, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Maryland
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 41.3 REC YDSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 35.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 13/100· model 56% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)68supports it
Projection vs line56neutral
Consistency37argues against it
Projection
37.6 REC YDS(×0.99 context)
L5 36.6 · L10 41.3 · med 36.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 33.4 · ceil 53.4
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86% | 6/7 | ||
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 35.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 |
Situational splits
Over 35.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home60%3/5Low
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%3/6Low
Last matchup — @ MSU
Nov 30, 2025
52ndof 223 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
MSU allows 24.3 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 12 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 7 games, Dorian Fleming has gone over 35.5 REC YDS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. MSU has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 52nd-most REC YDS of 223 teams (24.3 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 15.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.