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Air Force FalconsDylan Carson
#5 · RB · 6' 0" · 215 lb · 9 games
Stats updated: Nov 28, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Air Force
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 41.6 RUSH YDSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 31.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 52% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)70supports it
Projection vs line52neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
33.0 RUSH YDS(×0.94 context)
L5 30.0 · L10 41.6 · med 31.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 18.6 · ceil 55.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 109 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Last 209 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Season9 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 31.5Current | 44% | 4/9 | |
| 44% | 4/9 | ||
| 44% | 4/9 | ||
| 44% | 4/9 |
Situational splits
Over 31.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days38%3/8Low
Last matchup — @ CSU
Nov 28, 2025
60thof 236 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
CSU allows 57.5 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 34 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 9 games, Dylan Carson has gone over 31.5 RUSH YDS 4 of 9 decided times (44%) — versus 44% across the full season. CSU has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 60th-most RUSH YDS of 236 teams (57.5 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 28.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.