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Louisiana Tech BulldogsEli Finley
#84 · TE · 6' 6" · 244 lb · 9 games
Stats updated: Dec 30, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Louisiana Tech
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 47.0 REC YDSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 36.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 50% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)67supports it
Projection vs line50neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
40.6 REC YDS(×0.95 context)
L5 34.2 · L10 47.0 · med 36.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 19.8 · ceil 58.4
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 109 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Last 209 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Season9 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 36.5Current | 44% | 4/9 | |
| 44% | 4/9 | ||
| 44% | 4/9 | ||
| 44% | 4/9 |
Situational splits
Over 36.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home80%4/5Low
Away0%0/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days38%3/8Low
Last matchup — vs LIB
Nov 22, 2025
81stof 223 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
LIB allows 21.3 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 14 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 9 games, Eli Finley has gone over 36.5 REC YDS 4 of 9 decided times (44%) — versus 44% across the full season. LIB has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 81st-most REC YDS of 223 teams (21.3 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 41.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.