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Oregon State BeaversEric Olsen
#80 · TE · 6' 5" · 240 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Oct 31, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Oregon State
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line1.2×
Receiving Yards · season avg 53.0 REC YDS · DK Pick6 lineSave this DK Pick6 prop to your Playbook to track it
DK Pick6 payout options — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation. Payout-wt= season over rate × the rung’s multiplier — a per-leg comparison against the standard line’s 1×. Descriptive research, not betting advice.
Verdict
vs 39.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsBlazing overFireFactor 80/100· model 84% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line88supports it
Consistency26argues against it
Projection
64.2 REC YDS(×1.10 context)
L5 66.4 · L10 53.0 · med 59.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 38.6 · ceil 72.2
Matchup
NR
small sample
Scored against this payout variant's ~42% breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for its payout, not a coin flip. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
100%over
5 over · 0 under
Medium confidence95% CI 57%–100%Last 108 games
75%over
6 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 41%–93%Last 208 games
75%over
6 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 41%–93%Season8 games
75%over
6 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 41%–93%Situational splits
Over 39.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away100%4/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days71%5/7Low
Next matchup — vs TXST
Nov 8, 2026
164thof 224 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
TXST allows 17.2 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 9 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 8 games, Eric Olsen has gone over 39.5 REC YDS 6 of 8 decided times (75%) — versus 75% across the full season. TXST has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 164th-most REC YDS of 224 teams (17.2 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 23.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
1 book @ 48.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
FanDuel-114
-6.1% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-114
-6.1% EV
Model vs market (over)+33.9%
Our model puts the over at 83.9% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (49.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Over only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 75%.