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James Madison DukesGeorge Pettaway
#6 · RB · 5' 10" · 196 lb · 6 games
Stats updated: Dec 21, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- James Madison
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 30.7 RUSH YDSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 20.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsWarm overFireFactor 34/100· model 56% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)98supports it
Projection vs line56neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
22.6 RUSH YDS(×0.90 context)
L5 17.0 · L10 30.7 · med 21.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 12.0 · ceil 29.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 106 games
67%over
4 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–90%Last 206 games
67%over
4 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–90%Season6 games
67%over
4 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–90%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 4/6 | ||
| 67% | 4/6 | ||
| 67% | 4/6 | ||
| 20.5Current | 67% | 4/6 | |
| 33% | 2/6 | ||
| 33% | 2/6 | ||
| 33% | 2/6 |
Situational splits
Over 20.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%3/3Low
Away33%1/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days60%3/5Low
Last matchup — @ ORE
Dec 21, 2025
157thof 236 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
ORE allows 43.9 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 33 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 6 games, George Pettaway has gone over 20.5 RUSH YDS 4 of 6 decided times (67%) — versus 67% across the full season. ORE has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 157th-most RUSH YDS of 236 teams (43.9 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 31.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.