Loading…
Virginia Tech HokiesHarrison Saint Germain
#87 · TE · 6' 4" · 251 lb · 5 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 3 of these 5 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Virginia Tech
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 8.6 REC YDS · our lineSave this DK Pick6 prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 8.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsWarm overFireFactor 23/100· model 49% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line49neutral
Consistency34argues against it
Projection
8.1 REC YDS
L5 8.6 · L10 8.6 · med 9.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 5.0 · ceil 10.8
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 105 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 205 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Season5 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 8.5Current | 60% | 3/5 | |
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 20% | 1/5 | ||
| 20% | 1/5 |
Situational splits
Over 8.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%3/4Low
Away0%0/1Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%2/4Low
Next matchup — @ BC
Sep 26, 2026
204thof 216 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
BC allows 7.0 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 5 games, Harrison Saint Germain has gone over 8.5 REC YDS 3 of 5 decided times (60%) — versus 60% across the full season. BC has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 204th-most REC YDS of 216 teams (7.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 3.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 60%.