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Houston CougarsJ'Marion Burnette
#20 · RB · 6' 2" · 225 lb · 3 games
Stats updated: Oct 18, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Houston
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 27.7 RUSH YDSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 26.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsWarm overFireFactor 49/100· model 55% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)99supports it
Projection vs line55neutral
Consistency41neutral
Projection
27.2 RUSH YDS
L5 27.7 · L10 27.7 · med 27.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 20.4 · ceil 34.8
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 53 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Last 103 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Last 203 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Season3 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 2/3 | ||
| 67% | 2/3 | ||
| 67% | 2/3 | ||
| 26.5Current | 67% | 2/3 | |
| 33% | 1/3 | ||
| 33% | 1/3 | ||
| 33% | 1/3 |
Situational splits
Over 26.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%2/2Low
Away0%0/1Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%1/2Low
Last matchup — vs ARIZ
Oct 18, 2025
171stof 236 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
ARIZ allows 42.3 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 29 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 3 games, J'Marion Burnette has gone over 26.5 RUSH YDS 2 of 3 decided times (67%) — versus 67% across the full season. ARIZ has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 171st-most RUSH YDS of 236 teams (42.3 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 9.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.