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Sacramento State HornetsJaden Rashada
#5 · QB · 6' 4" · 183 lb · 3 games
Stats updated: Oct 19, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Sacramento State
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 51.7 PASS YDSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 38.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsWarm overFireFactor 34/100· model 60% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)99supports it
Projection vs line60supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
47.8 PASS YDS
L5 51.7 · L10 51.7 · med 39.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 21.0 · ceil 79.8
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs over on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 53 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Last 103 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Last 203 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Season3 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 2/3 | ||
| 67% | 2/3 | ||
| 67% | 2/3 | ||
| 38.5Current | 67% | 2/3 | |
| 33% | 1/3 | ||
| 33% | 1/3 | ||
| 33% | 1/3 |
Situational splits
Over 38.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home0%0/1Low
Away100%2/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%1/2Low
Last matchup — vs CP
Sep 28, 2025
167thof 234 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
CP allows 178.0 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 3 games, Jaden Rashada has gone over 38.5 PASS YDS 2 of 3 decided times (67%) — versus 67% across the full season. CP has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 167th-most PASS YDS of 234 teams (178.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 41.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.