UAB Blazers

Jalen Kitna Completions

Stats updated: Nov 29, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jalen Kitna has gone over 25.5 CMP in 4 of his last 8 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

College: UAB
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

Completions · season avg 25.9 CMP

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Verdict

vs 25.5 CMPCompletions

No readFireFactor 14/100· model 65% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral

Projection vs line65supports it

Consistency61supports it

Projection

27.9 CMP(×1.10 context)

L5 27.4 · L10 25.9 · med 25.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 20.8 · ceil 29.6

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 108 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Last 208 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Season8 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Alternate lines — Completions (CMP)

CMP over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate CMP line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	63%	5/8
	63%	5/8
	50%	4/8
25.5Current	50%	4/8
	38%	3/8
	38%	3/8
	38%	3/8

Last 8 games — CMP per game vs. line 25.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 25.5 CMP by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home40%2/5Low

Away67%2/3Low

Days since last game

3+ days57%4/7Low

Last matchup — vs USF

Nov 22, 2025

74thof 234 in CMP allowed to quarterbacks

USF allows 18.1 CMP per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 15 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 8 games, Jalen Kitna has gone over 25.5 CMP 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. USF has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 74th-most CMP of 234 teams (18.1 per game). His game-to-game CMP have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 6.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

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Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.