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Fresno State BulldogsJayden Mandal Passing TDs
Stats updated: Sep 19, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Jayden Mandal has gone over 0.5 PASS TD in 2 of his last 3 decided games (67%), measured against our typical-game line.
- College
- Fresno State
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Passing TDs · season avg 1.0 PASS TD · our lineSave this DK Pick6 prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 0.5 PASS TDPassing TDsWarm overFireFactor 36/100· model 65% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)99supports it
Projection vs line65supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.0 PASS TD
L5 1.0 · L10 1.0 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.4 · ceil 1.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs over on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 53 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Last 103 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Last 203 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Season3 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Alternate lines — Passing TDs (PASS TD)
PASS TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 67% | 2/3 | |
| 33% | 1/3 | ||
| 0% | 0/3 | ||
| 0% | 0/3 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 PASS TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%1/1Low
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days100%2/2Low
Next matchup — vs RICE
Sep 27, 2026
121stof 226 in PASS TD allowed to quarterbacks
RICE allows 1.3 PASS TD per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 3 games, Jayden Mandal has gone over 0.5 PASS TD 2 of 3 decided times (67%) — versus 67% across the full season. RICE has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 121st-most PASS TD of 226 teams (1.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 1.5 PASS TD- No-vig fair (over)
- 40.4%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 59.6%
Best Over
FanDuel+134
-5.4% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-168
-5.0% EV
Model vs market (over)+24.4%
Our model puts the over at 64.8% vs the market's no-vig 40.4%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing TDs (PASS TD)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (1.5 PASS TD). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.
More Jayden Mandal research
Jayden Mandal — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Mandal Completions→
Completions hit rates and trends.
Mandal Rushing Yards→
Rushing Yards hit rates and trends.
Mandal Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
CFB Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.