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Florida International PanthersJJ Kohl
#17 · QB · 6' 7" · 250 lb · 9 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 6 of these 9 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 19, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Florida International
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 253.1 PASS YDS · our lineSave this DK Pick6 prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 270.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsWarm overFireFactor 20/100· model 59% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)67supports it
Projection vs line59neutral
Consistency52neutral
Projection
281.7 PASS YDS(×1.05 context)
L5 267.0 · L10 253.1 · med 271.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 186.0 · ceil 304.2
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 109 games
56%over
5 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%Last 209 games
56%over
5 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%Season9 games
56%over
5 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 270.5Current | 56% | 5/9 | |
| 44% | 4/9 | ||
| 44% | 4/9 | ||
| 44% | 4/9 |
Situational splits
Over 270.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home60%3/5Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days63%5/8Low
Next matchup — vs LIU
Sep 26, 2026
51stof 226 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
LIU allows 246.0 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 1 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 9 games, JJ Kohl has gone over 270.5 PASS YDS 5 of 9 decided times (56%) — versus 56% across the full season. LIU has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 51st-most PASS YDS of 226 teams (246.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 73.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 56%.