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Eastern Michigan EaglesJoshua Long
#9 · TE · 6' 5" · 242 lb · 15 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 12 of these 15 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 19, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Eastern Michigan
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 29.9 REC YDS · our lineSave this DK Pick6 prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 30.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 56% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line56neutral
Consistency34argues against it
Projection
30.3 REC YDS(×1.10 context)
L5 28.4 · L10 26.3 · med 21.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 17.0 · ceil 42.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2015 games
53%over
8 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–75%Season15 games
53%over
8 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–75%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 9/15 | ||
| 60% | 9/15 | ||
| 53% | 8/15 | ||
| 30.5Current | 53% | 8/15 | |
| 47% | 7/15 | ||
| 40% | 6/15 | ||
| 40% | 6/15 |
Situational splits
Over 30.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home63%5/8Low
Away43%3/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%7/14Low
Next matchup — vs LIN
Sep 26, 2026
89thof 216 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
LIN allows 21.3 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Joshua Long has gone over 30.5 REC YDS 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 53% across the full season. LIN has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 89th-most REC YDS of 216 teams (21.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 11.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.