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Colorado BuffaloesJulian Lewis
#10 · QB · 6' 1" · 190 lb · 5 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 3 of these 5 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Colorado
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 214.2 PASS YDS · our lineSave this DK Pick6 prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 161.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 35% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line35argues against it
Consistency22argues against it
Projection
225.6 PASS YDS
L5 214.2 · L10 214.2 · med 161.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 123.4 · ceil 312.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 105 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 205 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Season5 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 161.5Current | 40% | 2/5 | |
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 40% | 2/5 |
Situational splits
Over 161.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%2/4Low
Next matchup — @ BAY
Sep 26, 2026
141stof 214 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
BAY allows 166.5 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 5 games, Julian Lewis has gone over 161.5 PASS YDS 2 of 5 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. BAY has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 141st-most PASS YDS of 214 teams (166.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 99.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 204.5 PASS YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.1%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 49.9%
Best Over
FanDuel-112
-5.3% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-112
-5.5% EV
Model vs market (over)+15.4%
Our model puts the over at 65.5% vs the market's no-vig 50.1%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (204.5 PASS YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.