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Tulane Green WaveJustyn Reid Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)
Stats updated: Dec 20, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
Justyn Reid has gone over 2.5 FS in 5 of his last 9 decided games (56%), measured against our typical-game line.
- College
- Tulane
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 4.6 FSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 2.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)No readFireFactor 7/100· model 63% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)63supports it
Projection vs line63supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
4.7 FS(×0.90 context)
L5 5.0 · L10 4.0 · med 2.7
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.9 · ceil 7.6
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under · 1 push
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Last 1010 games
56%over
5 over · 4 under · 1 push
Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%Last 2012 games
55%over
6 over · 5 under · 1 push
Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%Season12 games
55%over
6 over · 5 under · 1 push
Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)
FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 12/12 | ||
| 100% | 11/11 | ||
| 2.5Current | 55% | 6/11 | |
| 42% | 5/12 | ||
| 25% | 3/12 | ||
| 25% | 3/12 |
Situational splits
Over 2.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%3/4Low
Away43%3/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%5/10Low
Last matchup — @ MISS
Dec 20, 2025
67thof 223 in FS allowed to tight ends
MISS allows 5.8 FS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 12 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Justyn Reid has gone over 2.5 FS 5 of 9 decided times (56%) — versus 55% across the full season. MISS has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 67th-most FS of 223 teams (5.8 per game). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 3.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 55%.
More Justyn Reid research
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.