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Maryland TerrapinsKaleb Webb
#2 · WR · 6' 5" · 203 lb · 7 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 5 of these 7 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 19, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Maryland
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 55.3 REC YDS · our lineSave this DK Pick6 prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 47.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsWarm overFireFactor 39/100· model 82% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)75supports it
Projection vs line82supports it
Consistency30argues against it
Projection
74.2 REC YDS(×1.18 context)
L5 64.6 · L10 55.3 · med 48.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 39.2 · ceil 73.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 47.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 |
Situational splits
Over 47.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home25%1/4Low
Away100%3/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days67%4/6Low
Next matchup — vs UCLA
Sep 26, 2026
7thof 228 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
UCLA allows 84.7 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 7 games, Kaleb Webb has gone over 47.5 REC YDS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. UCLA has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 7th-most REC YDS of 228 teams (84.7 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 23.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
1 book @ 41.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.6%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.4%
Best Over
Caesars-113
-6.5% EV
Best Under
Caesars-117
-6.5% EV
Model vs market (over)+32.3%
Our model puts the over at 81.9% vs the market's no-vig 49.6%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (39.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.