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Alabama Crimson TideKevin Riley
#6 · RB · 5' 11" · 198 lb · 8 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 7 of these 8 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Alabama
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 29.5 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this DK Pick6 prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 25.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 49% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line49neutral
Consistency7argues against it
Projection
26.3 RUSH YDS(×0.99 context)
L5 23.2 · L10 29.5 · med 25.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 17.0 · ceil 34.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 25.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 |
Situational splits
Over 25.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home40%2/5Low
Away67%2/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days43%3/7Low
Next matchup — vs SC
Sep 26, 2026
201stof 228 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
SC allows 25.9 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 7 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 8 games, Kevin Riley has gone over 25.5 RUSH YDS 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. SC has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 201st-most RUSH YDS of 228 teams (25.9 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 16.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.