BYU Cougars

LJ Martin Receiving Yards

Stats updated: Sep 19, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

LJ Martin has gone over 26.5 REC YDS in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.

College: BYU
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

DK Pick6Receiving Yards · season avg 21.5 REC YDS · our line

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Verdict

vs 26.5 REC YDSReceiving Yards

No readFireFactor 7/100· model 53% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)66supports it

Projection vs line53neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

25.2 REC YDS(×1.10 context)

L5 29.2 · L10 23.5 · med 28.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 6.2 · ceil 34.6

Matchup

small sample

Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

80%over

4 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%

Last 1010 games

60%over

6 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%

Last 2013 games

54%over

7 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 29%–77%

Season13 games

54%over

7 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 29%–77%

Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)

REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC YDS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	54%	7/13
	54%	7/13
	54%	7/13
26.5Current	54%	7/13
	46%	6/13
	46%	6/13
	38%	5/13

Last 13 games — REC YDS per game vs. line 26.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 26.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%3/6Low

Away57%4/7Low

Days since last game

3+ days58%7/12Low

Last matchup — @ CSU

Sep 19, 2026

161stof 228 in REC YDS allowed to running backs

CSU allows 4.1 REC YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 9 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, LJ Martin has gone over 26.5 REC YDS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 54% across the full season. CSU has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 161st-most REC YDS of 228 teams (4.1 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 14.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Market edgeauto

2 books @ 19.5 REC YDS

No-vig fair (over): 49.7%
No-vig fair (under): 50.3%

Best Over

FanDuel-110

-5.0% EV

Best Under

Caesars-114

-5.7% EV

Model vs market (over)+3.0%

Our model puts the over at 52.7% vs the market's no-vig 49.7%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.

Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)

Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (19.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.

BookLineover rateEdge

over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 54%.