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San José State SpartansLuke Weaver
#3 · QB · 6' 3" · 210 lb · 6 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 2 of these 6 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 19, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- San José State
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 261.0 PASS YDS · our lineSave this DK Pick6 prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 242.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 12/100· model 44% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line44neutral
Consistency80supports it
Projection
251.6 PASS YDS(×0.97 context)
L5 254.4 · L10 261.0 · med 242.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 238.0 · ceil 294.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 106 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Last 206 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Season6 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 4/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 242.5Current | 50% | 3/6 | |
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 33% | 2/6 | ||
| 33% | 2/6 |
Situational splits
Over 242.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days40%2/5Low
Last matchup — vs FRES
Sep 19, 2026
49thof 226 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
FRES allows 247.7 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 6 games, Luke Weaver has gone over 242.5 PASS YDS 3 of 6 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. FRES has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 49th-most PASS YDS of 226 teams (247.7 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 31.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 237.5 PASS YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
FanDuel-112
-5.4% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-112
-5.4% EV
Model vs market (over)+5.8%
Our model puts the over at 55.8% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (237.5 PASS YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.