Akron Zips

Marquese Williams Rushing TDs

Stats updated: Sep 27, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Marquese Williams has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD in 0 of his last 4 decided games (0%), measured against our typical-game line.

College: Akron
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

Rushing TDs · season avg 0.0 RUSH TD

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Verdict

vs 0.5 RUSH TDRushing TDs

Frozen underFireFactor 90/100· model 100% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line95supports it

Projection

0.0 RUSH TD

L5 0.0 · L10 0.0 · med 0.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs under on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 54 games

0%over

0 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–49%

Last 104 games

0%over

0 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–49%

Last 204 games

0%over

0 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–49%

Season4 games

0%over

0 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–49%

Alternate lines — Rushing TDs (RUSH TD)

RUSH TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate RUSH TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	0%	0/4
	0%	0/4
	0%	0/4
	0%	0/4

Last 4 games — RUSH TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 RUSH TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/2Low

Away0%0/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days0%0/3Low

Last matchup — @ TOL

Sep 27, 2025

215thof 236 in RUSH TD allowed to running backs

TOL allows 0.2 RUSH TD per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 35 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 4 games, Marquese Williams has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD 0 of 4 decided times (0%) — versus 0% across the full season. TOL has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 215th-most RUSH TD of 236 teams (0.2 per game). His game-to-game RUSH TD have been variable (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 0%.