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Boston College EaglesMason McKenzie Rushing Yards
Stats updated: Sep 19, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Mason McKenzie has gone over 77.5 RUSH YDS in 2 of his last 3 decided games (67%), measured against our typical-game line.
- College
- Boston College
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 75.0 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this DK Pick6 prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 77.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsWarm overFireFactor 46/100· model 33% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)99supports it
Projection vs line33argues against it
Consistency63supports it
Projection
68.0 RUSH YDS(×0.92 context)
L5 75.0 · L10 75.0 · med 78.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 63.0 · ceil 87.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs over on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 53 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Last 103 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Last 203 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Season3 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 2/3 | ||
| 67% | 2/3 | ||
| 67% | 2/3 | ||
| 77.5Current | 67% | 2/3 | |
| 33% | 1/3 | ||
| 33% | 1/3 | ||
| 33% | 1/3 |
Situational splits
Over 77.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%1/2Low
Away100%1/1Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%1/2Low
Next matchup — vs VT
Sep 26, 2026
25thof 226 in RUSH YDS allowed to quarterbacks
VT allows 49.5 RUSH YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 3 games, Mason McKenzie has gone over 77.5 RUSH YDS 2 of 3 decided times (67%) — versus 67% across the full season. VT has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 25th-most RUSH YDS of 226 teams (49.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 16.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 57.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
FanDuel-112
-5.4% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-112
-5.4% EV
Model vs market (over)-17.2%
Our model puts the over at 32.8% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (57.5 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.
More Mason McKenzie research
Mason McKenzie — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
McKenzie Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
McKenzie Completions→
Completions hit rates and trends.
McKenzie Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
CFB Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.