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North Dakota State BisonOwen Johnson
#4 · RB · 5' 11" · 212 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Dec 6, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- North Dakota State
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 5.3 RUSH YDSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 5.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 12/100· model 52% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)86supports it
Projection vs line52neutral
Consistency4argues against it
Projection
5.1 RUSH YDS(×1.09 context)
L5 5.2 · L10 5.3 · med 6.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 2.4 · ceil 8.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 108 games
63%over
5 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–86%Last 208 games
63%over
5 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–86%Season8 games
63%over
5 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–86%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75% | 6/8 | ||
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 5.5Current | 63% | 5/8 | |
| 38% | 3/8 | ||
| 38% | 3/8 | ||
| 13% | 1/8 |
Situational splits
Over 5.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home60%3/5Low
Away67%2/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days71%5/7Low
Last matchup — vs STMN
Nov 22, 2025
49thof 236 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
STMN allows 60.3 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 8 games, Owen Johnson has gone over 5.5 RUSH YDS 5 of 8 decided times (63%) — versus 63% across the full season. STMN has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 49th-most RUSH YDS of 236 teams (60.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 3.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 63%.