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Ohio BobcatsParker Navarro
#13 · QB · 6' 0" · 205 lb · 11 games
Stats updated: Dec 24, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Ohio
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 204.8 PASS YDSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutParker Navarro isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Navarro saw action in a blowout loss. He will continue to be Kurtis Rourke's backup.
Verdict
vs 204.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 34% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)58neutral
Projection vs line34argues against it
Consistency46neutral
Projection
161.5 PASS YDS(×0.90 context)
L5 175.2 · L10 201.4 · med 203.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 147.0 · ceil 247.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2011 games
55%over
6 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%Season11 games
55%over
6 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55% | 6/11 | ||
| 55% | 6/11 | ||
| 55% | 6/11 | ||
| 204.5Current | 55% | 6/11 | |
| 45% | 5/11 | ||
| 45% | 5/11 | ||
| 45% | 5/11 |
Situational splits
Over 204.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%4/6Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%5/10Low
Last matchup — vs UNLV
Dec 24, 2025
125thof 234 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
UNLV allows 201.3 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 16 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Parker Navarro has gone over 204.5 PASS YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 55% across the full season. UNLV has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 125th-most PASS YDS of 234 teams (201.3 per game). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 66.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 55%.