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Fresno State BulldogsRayshon Luke
#2 · RB · 5' 10" · 180 lb · 14 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 11 of these 14 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 19, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Fresno State
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 51.8 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this DK Pick6 prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 44.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 56% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line56neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup50neutral
Projection
38.8 RUSH YDS(×0.90 context)
L5 35.2 · L10 50.1 · med 44.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 21.6 · ceil 86.8
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2014 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Season14 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 44.5Current | 50% | 7/14 | |
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 |
Situational splits
Over 44.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home57%4/7Low
Away43%3/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days54%7/13Low
Next matchup — vs RICE
Sep 27, 2026
119thof 228 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
RICE allows 42.9 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 10 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Rayshon Luke has gone over 44.5 RUSH YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. RICE has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 119th-most RUSH YDS of 228 teams (42.9 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 32.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.