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North Dakota State BisonReis Kessel Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)
Stats updated: Nov 15, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
Reis Kessel has gone over 4.5 FS in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- College
- North Dakota State
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 5.0 FSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 4.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)No readFireFactor 6/100· model 45% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)62supports it
Projection vs line45neutral
Consistency21argues against it
Projection
4.9 FS(×1.10 context)
L5 4.5 · L10 5.0 · med 4.6
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.1 · ceil 6.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2011 games
45%over
5 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–72%Season11 games
45%over
5 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–72%Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)
FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 11/11 | ||
| 91% | 10/11 | ||
| 73% | 8/11 | ||
| 4.5Current | 45% | 5/11 | |
| 36% | 4/11 | ||
| 18% | 2/11 | ||
| 9% | 1/11 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home40%2/5Low
Away50%3/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%5/10Low
Last matchup — vs UNI
Nov 15, 2025
201stof 223 in FS allowed to tight ends
UNI allows 2.3 FS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Reis Kessel has gone over 4.5 FS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 45% across the full season. UNI has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 201st-most FS of 223 teams (2.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 45%.
More Reis Kessel research
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.