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Wyoming CowboysSamuel Harris
#26 · RB · 5' 11" · 170 lb · 9 games
Stats updated: Nov 22, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Wyoming
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 61.2 RUSH YDSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 61.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 51% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)67supports it
Projection vs line51neutral
Consistency2argues against it
Projection
62.2 RUSH YDS(×1.01 context)
L5 56.8 · L10 61.2 · med 61.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 27.2 · ceil 90.6
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 109 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Last 209 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Season9 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 61.5Current | 44% | 4/9 | |
| 44% | 4/9 | ||
| 44% | 4/9 | ||
| 44% | 4/9 |
Situational splits
Over 61.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home20%1/5Low
Away75%3/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%4/8Low
Last matchup — @ FRES
Nov 16, 2025
168thof 236 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
FRES allows 42.9 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 32 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 9 games, Samuel Harris has gone over 61.5 RUSH YDS 4 of 9 decided times (44%) — versus 44% across the full season. FRES has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 168th-most RUSH YDS of 236 teams (42.9 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 35.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.