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Syracuse OrangeSteve Angeli
#9 · QB · 6' 3" · 212 lb · 7 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 4 of these 7 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 17, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Syracuse
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line1.3×
Passing Yards · season avg 292.6 PASS YDS · DK Pick6 lineSave this DK Pick6 prop to your Playbook to track it
DK Pick6 payout options — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation. Payout-wt= season over rate × the rung’s multiplier — a per-leg comparison against the standard line’s 1×. Descriptive research, not betting advice.
Verdict
vs 289.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 8/100· model 29% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)63supports it
Projection vs line40argues against it
Consistency55neutral
Projection
245.5 PASS YDS(×0.90 context)
L5 271.6 · L10 292.6 · med 274.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 248.6 · ceil 367.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Scored against this payout variant's ~38% breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for its payout, not a coin flip. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 107 games
43%over
3 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%Last 207 games
43%over
3 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%Season7 games
43%over
3 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%Situational splits
Over 289.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%3/4Low
Away0%0/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%3/6Low
Last matchup — @ PITT
Sep 17, 2026
111thof 226 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
PITT allows 196.0 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 7 games, Steve Angeli has gone over 289.5 PASS YDS 3 of 7 decided times (43%) — versus 43% across the full season. PITT has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 111th-most PASS YDS of 226 teams (196.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 79.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
1 book @ 256.5 PASS YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.8%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 49.2%
Best Over
Caesars-120
-6.9% EV
Best Under
Caesars-112
-6.9% EV
Model vs market (over)-21.4%
Our model puts the over at 29.4% vs the market's no-vig 50.8%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (255.5 PASS YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Over only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 43%.