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Tennessee VolunteersTeam
RB · 9 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 8 of these 9 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 5, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg -6.4 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this DK Pick6 prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 0.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsCold underFireFactor 64/100· model 72% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line72supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
0.0 RUSH YDS(×1.05 context)
L5 -6.0 · L10 -6.4 · med -5.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor -7.8 · ceil -3.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
0%over
0 over · 5 under
Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%Last 109 games
0%over
0 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 0%–30%Last 209 games
0%over
0 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 0%–30%Season9 games
0%over
0 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 0%–30%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 0% | 0/9 | |
| 0% | 0/9 | ||
| 0% | 0/9 | ||
| 0% | 0/9 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home0%0/6Medium
Away0%0/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days0%0/8Medium
Next matchup — vs TEX
Sep 26, 2026
184thof 228 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
TEX allows 30.9 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 9 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 9 games, Team has gone over 0.5 RUSH YDS 0 of 9 decided times (0%) — versus 0% across the full season. TEX has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 184th-most RUSH YDS of 228 teams (30.9 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 4.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 0%.