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Buffalo BullsTerrance Shelton Jr.
#25 · RB · 5' 11" · 213 lb · 7 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 5 of these 7 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Buffalo
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 39.3 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this DK Pick6 prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 32.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsWarm overFireFactor 29/100· model 75% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line75supports it
Consistency43neutral
Projection
43.3 RUSH YDS(×1.10 context)
L5 43.6 · L10 39.3 · med 33.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 27.4 · ceil 54.8
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 32.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 |
Situational splits
Over 32.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%3/4Low
Away33%1/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%3/6Low
Next matchup — vs RMU
Sep 26, 2026
13thof 228 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
RMU allows 74.0 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 7 games, Terrance Shelton Jr. has gone over 32.5 RUSH YDS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. RMU has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 13th-most RUSH YDS of 228 teams (74.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 13.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.