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Louisiana Ragin' CajunsTrey Miller Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)
Stats updated: Dec 18, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
Trey Miller has gone over 2.5 FS in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.
- College
- Louisiana
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 2.3 FSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 2.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)Cool underFireFactor 21/100· model 51% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)77supports it
Projection vs line51neutral
Consistency31argues against it
Projection
2.5 FS(×1.08 context)
L5 2.6 · L10 2.3 · med 2.4
Consistency
Variable
floor 1.4 · ceil 3.2
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Season10 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)
FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 10/10 | ||
| 67% | 6/9 | ||
| 2.5Current | 40% | 4/10 | |
| 20% | 2/10 | ||
| 0% | 0/10 | ||
| 0% | 0/10 |
Situational splits
Over 2.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home40%2/5Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days44%4/9Low
Last matchup — @ DEL
Dec 18, 2025
90thof 223 in FS allowed to tight ends
DEL allows 5.4 FS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 15 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Trey Miller has gone over 2.5 FS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. DEL has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 90th-most FS of 223 teams (5.4 per game). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.
More Trey Miller research
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.