Loading…
Wake Forest Demon DeaconsTy Clark III
#4 · RB · 6' 0" · 205 lb · 12 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 10 of these 12 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Wake Forest
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 38.1 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this DK Pick6 prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 22.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 32% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line32argues against it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
54.5 RUSH YDS(×1.10 context)
L5 62.2 · L10 40.1 · med 22.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 14.2 · ceil 60.2
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2012 games
42%over
5 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–68%Season12 games
42%over
5 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–68%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 8/12 | ||
| 67% | 8/12 | ||
| 67% | 8/12 | ||
| 22.5Current | 42% | 5/12 | |
| 42% | 5/12 | ||
| 42% | 5/12 | ||
| 42% | 5/12 |
Situational splits
Over 22.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home43%3/7Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days36%4/11Low
Next matchup — @ LOU
Sep 26, 2026
161stof 218 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
LOU allows 30.5 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Ty Clark III has gone over 22.5 RUSH YDS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 42% across the full season. LOU has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 161st-most RUSH YDS of 218 teams (30.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 30.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 42%.