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UL Monroe WarhawksZach Palmer-Smith
#6 · RB · 6' 0" · 210 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Nov 29, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- UL Monroe
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 85.7 RUSH YDSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 83.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsWarm overFireFactor 31/100· model 74% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line74supports it
Consistency53neutral
Projection
99.7 RUSH YDS(×1.10 context)
L5 95.8 · L10 85.7 · med 84.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 78.4 · ceil 108.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 83.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 |
Situational splits
Over 83.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%3/6Low
Last matchup — @ UL
Nov 29, 2025
13thof 236 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
UL allows 77.9 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 25 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 7 games, Zach Palmer-Smith has gone over 83.5 RUSH YDS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. UL has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 13th-most RUSH YDS of 236 teams (77.9 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 23.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.