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Cincinnati RedsBlake Dunn
#59 · CF · 5-9 · 210 lb · 33 games
Stats updated: Jun 26, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 1.2 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListBlake Dunn isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Elbow Surgery
- Est. return:
- Mar 1, 2027
Dunn was already out for the season following internal brace surgery in August, and he's now set to undergo an additional operation on his elbow. The first surgery left Dunn a question mark for Opening Day next year, and it's possible Wednesday's procedure lengthens his timeline.
Verdict
vs 1.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 65% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)82supports it
Projection vs line65supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
1.1 H(×0.95 context)
L5 1.2 · L10 1.0 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2020 games
35%over
7 over · 13 under
Medium confidence95% CI 18%–57%Season33 games
39%over
13 over · 20 under
Medium confidence95% CI 25%–56%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70% | 23/33 | ||
| 1.5Current | 39% | 13/33 | |
| 6% | 2/33 | ||
| 0% | 0/33 | ||
| 0% | 0/33 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home17%3/18Medium
Away67%10/15Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)35%7/20Medium
1 day40%2/5Low
2 days50%3/6Low
Next matchup — @ ATL
Sep 22, 2026
25thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
ATL pitching allows 7.8 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 156 games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Blake Dunn has gone over 1.5 H 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 39% across the full season. ATL has been a tough matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 25th-most H of 30 teams (7.8 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati Reds
hitter-friendly (runs ×1.05, HR ×1.18)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 39%.