Minnesota Twins

Byron Buxton Walks

Stats updated: Aug 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Byron Buxton has gone over 0.5 BB in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Country: USA
Experience: 12 seasons

Line

Walks · season avg 0.3 BB

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OutByron Buxton isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Right Hip Surgery
Est. return:: Feb 1, 2027

Buxton underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right hip Sept. 18. He will continue rehabbing through Christmas, at which point he will shift to ramping up for the 2027 season. The Twins expect Buxton to be ready to roll for the start of spring training. He finished this season with a .254/.319/.511 batting line, 25 home runs and seven stolen bases over 93 games.

Verdict

vs 0.5 BBWalks

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 69% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)99supports it

Projection vs line69supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.4 BB(×0.93 context)

L5 0.4 · L10 0.6 · med 0.5

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2020 games

35%over

7 over · 13 under

Medium confidence95% CI 18%–57%

Season89 games

33%over

29 over · 60 under

High confidence95% CI 24%–43%

Alternate lines — Walks (BB)

BB over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate BB line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	33%	29/89
	1%	1/89
	0%	0/89
	0%	0/89

Last 20 games — BB per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 BB by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home36%16/44Medium

Away29%13/45Medium

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)32%21/65High

1 day39%7/18Medium

3+ days20%1/5Low

Last matchup — @ ATH

Aug 25, 2026

4thof 30 in BB allowed to hitters

ATH pitching allows 3.9 BB per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 162 games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Byron Buxton has gone over 0.5 BB 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 33% across the full season. ATH has been a favorable matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 4th-most BB of 30 teams (3.9 per game). His game-to-game BB have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Home park

Target Field · Minnesota Twins

neutral (runs ×0.99, HR ×0.98)

Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.