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Minnesota TwinsByron Buxton
#25 · CF · 6-1 · 190 lb · 89 games
Stats updated: Aug 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 12 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 1.0 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListByron Buxton isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Hip Surgery
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2027
Buxton has been on the 10-day injured list since late August with a hip injury that's bothered him off-and-on throughout the 2026 campaign. It's good news that the surgery is arthroscopic, as that should give Buxton plenty of time to recover before spring training. Buxton will finish this season with a .254/.319/.511 batting line with 25 home runs and seven stolen bases over 93 games. With Buxton officially done for the season, Walker Jenkins will continue to man center field for Minnesota.
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 62% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)92supports it
Projection vs line62supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
0.8 H(×0.95 context)
L5 0.8 · L10 0.6 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2020 games
45%over
9 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%Season89 games
66%over
59 over · 30 under
High confidence95% CI 56%–75%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 66% | 59/89 | |
| 27% | 24/89 | ||
| 9% | 8/89 | ||
| 1% | 1/89 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home61%27/44Medium
Away71%32/45Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)65%42/65High
1 day61%11/18Medium
3+ days100%5/5Medium
With a teammate out
How this H line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Kaelen Culpepper out · Left Hamstring Strain+0.5 H when he sits
Without (79g)
1.1 H
70% over 0.5
With (10g)
0.6 H
40% over 0.5
Trevor Larnach out · Left Wrist Sprain+0.2 H when he sits
Without (18g)
1.2 H
67% over 0.5
With (71g)
1.0 H
66% over 0.5
Next matchup — @ SF
Sep 22, 2026
12thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
SF pitching allows 8.3 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 156 games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Byron Buxton has gone over 0.5 H 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 66% across the full season. SF has been a middling matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 12th-most H of 30 teams (8.3 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Target Field · Minnesota Twins
neutral (runs ×0.99, HR ×0.98)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 66%.