Minnesota Twins

Byron Buxton Strikeouts (batter)

Stats updated: Jul 28, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Byron Buxton has gone over 1.5 SO in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.

Country: USA
Experience: 12 seasons

Line

PrizePicksStrikeouts (batter) · season avg 1.1 SO · our line

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Injured ListByron Buxton isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Right Hip Pinched Nerve
Est. return:: Aug 8, 2026

Buxton had to be yanked from Tuesday's contest with right hip soreness, which is the same injury he just returned from last week. He's considered day-to-day for now, but another trip to the injured list could be in the offing is Buxton doesn't experience sufficient improvement in the coming days. Luke Keaschall will play center field for the Twins on Wednesday.

Verdict

vs 1.5 SOStrikeouts (batter)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 68% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line68supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup0argues against it

Projection

1.1 SO(×0.99 context)

L5 1.0 · L10 0.8 · med 0.5

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

30%over

3 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%

Last 2020 games

30%over

6 over · 14 under

Medium confidence95% CI 15%–52%

Season79 games

33%over

26 over · 53 under

High confidence95% CI 24%–44%

Alternate lines — Strikeouts (batter) (SO)

SO over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate SO line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	72%	57/79
1.5Current	33%	26/79
	5%	4/79
	1%	1/79
	0%	0/79

Last 20 games — SO per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 SO by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home18%7/39High

Away48%19/40Medium

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)32%19/59High

1 day33%5/15Medium

3+ days50%2/4Low

Next matchup — @ MIL

Aug 8, 2026

1stof 30 in SO allowed to hitters

MIL pitching allows 9.8 SO per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 116 games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Byron Buxton has gone over 1.5 SO 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 33% across the full season. MIL has been a favorable matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 1st-most SO of 30 teams (9.8 per game). His game-to-game SO have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Home park

Target Field · Minnesota Twins

neutral (runs ×0.99, HR ×0.98)

Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.