Loading…
San Francisco GiantsCasey Schmitt
#10 · LF · 6-0 · 215 lb · 95 games
Stats updated: Jul 27, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 1.1 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListCasey Schmitt isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Knee Surgery
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2027
The Giants said that Schmitt could be ready to return in roughly 6-to-8 weeks, but with San Francisco sitting at 47-62 -- well out of contention for a playoff spot -- the team likely won't be in any rush to bring him back and could opt to keep him out until 2027. Either way, he's expected to have a normal offseason and will be ready for the start of spring training.
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 58% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)97supports it
Projection vs line58neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
0.7 H(×0.89 context)
L5 0.6 · L10 0.7 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2020 games
65%over
13 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 43%–82%Season95 games
66%over
63 over · 32 under
High confidence95% CI 56%–75%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 66% | 63/95 | |
| 34% | 32/95 | ||
| 7% | 7/95 | ||
| 2% | 2/95 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home62%26/42Medium
Away70%37/53High
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)69%48/70High
1 day55%11/20Medium
2 days100%1/1Low
3+ days100%2/2Low
With a teammate out
How this H line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Matt Chapman out · Not Specified Abdomen Strain-0.2 H when he sits
Without (21g)
0.9 H
67% over 0.5
With (74g)
1.1 H
66% over 0.5
Harrison Bader out · Left Foot Plantar Fasciitis-0.2 H when he sits
Without (71g)
1.0 H
65% over 0.5
With (24g)
1.3 H
71% over 0.5
Next matchup — vs DET
Aug 8, 2026
24thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
DET pitching allows 7.7 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 115 games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Casey Schmitt has gone over 0.5 H 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 66% across the full season. DET has been a tough matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 24th-most H of 30 teams (7.7 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Oracle Park · San Francisco Giants
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.92, HR ×0.85)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Line shopping — Hits (H)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (0.5 H). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 66%.