Loading…
San Francisco GiantsCasey Schmitt Walks
Stats updated: Jul 27, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Casey Schmitt has gone over 0.5 BB in 2 of his last 10 decided games (20%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Walks · season avg 0.1 BB · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListCasey Schmitt isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Knee Surgery
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2027
The Giants said that Schmitt could be ready to return in roughly 6-to-8 weeks, but with San Francisco sitting at 47-62 -- well out of contention for a playoff spot -- the team likely won't be in any rush to bring him back and could opt to keep him out until 2027. Either way, he's expected to have a normal offseason and will be ready for the start of spring training.
Verdict
vs 0.5 BBWalksNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 90% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line90supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
0.1 BB(×0.89 context)
L5 0.2 · L10 0.2 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
20%over
2 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%Last 2020 games
20%over
4 over · 16 under
Medium confidence95% CI 8%–42%Season95 games
12%over
11 over · 84 under
High confidence95% CI 7%–20%Alternate lines — Walks (BB)
BB over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 12% | 11/95 | |
| 0% | 0/95 | ||
| 0% | 0/95 | ||
| 0% | 0/95 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 BB by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home19%8/42High
Away6%3/53High
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)14%10/70High
1 day0%0/20High
2 days0%0/1Low
3+ days50%1/2Low
With a teammate out
How this BB line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Matt Chapman out · Not Specified Abdomen Strain+0.2 BB when he sits
Without (21g)
0.2 BB
24% over 0.5
With (74g)
0.1 BB
8% over 0.5
Harrison Bader out · Left Foot Plantar Fasciitis
Without (71g)
0.1 BB
10% over 0.5
With (24g)
0.2 BB
17% over 0.5
Next matchup — vs DET
Aug 8, 2026
23rdof 30 in BB allowed to hitters
DET pitching allows 3.0 BB per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 116 games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Casey Schmitt has gone over 0.5 BB 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 12% across the full season. DET has been a tough matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 23rd-most BB of 30 teams (3.0 per game). His game-to-game BB have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Oracle Park · San Francisco Giants
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.92, HR ×0.85)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 12%.
More Casey Schmitt research
Casey Schmitt — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Schmitt Total Bases→
Total Bases hit rates and trends.
Schmitt Home Runs→
Home Runs hit rates and trends.
Schmitt RBIs→
RBIs hit rates and trends.
Schmitt Runs→
Runs hit rates and trends.
Pitching Allowed by team→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
MLB Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.