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Washington NationalsCurtis Mead
#25 · 3B · 6-1 · 225 lb · 69 games
Stats updated: Jul 27, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Australia
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 1.0 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListCurtis Mead isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Wrist Fracture
- Est. return:
- Sep 11, 2026
Mead was placed on the 10-day injured list Wednesday after suffering the injury when he was hit by a pitch Monday night against the Athletics. The 25-year-old is anticipated to be sidelined for roughly 6-to-8 weeks, but Wednesday's news makes the earlier end of that time frame is more likely.
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 60% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)91supports it
Projection vs line60supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
0.8 H(×0.97 context)
L5 0.8 · L10 1.3 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2020 games
70%over
14 over · 6 under
Medium confidence95% CI 48%–85%Season69 games
64%over
44 over · 25 under
High confidence95% CI 52%–74%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 64% | 44/69 | |
| 23% | 16/69 | ||
| 7% | 5/69 | ||
| 3% | 2/69 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home62%23/37Medium
Away66%21/32Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)55%22/40Medium
1 day73%11/15Medium
2 days80%8/10Low
3+ days100%3/3Low
Next matchup — vs CIN
Aug 8, 2026
13thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
CIN pitching allows 8.2 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 115 games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Curtis Mead has gone over 0.5 H 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 64% across the full season. CIN has been a middling matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 13th-most H of 30 teams (8.2 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Nationals Park · Washington Nationals
neutral (runs ×1.00, HR ×1.00)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Line shopping — Hits (H)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (1.5 H). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 64%.